Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
